This Week in Golf - July 12th through July 18th

Golf Betting Lines

07/12/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - BRITISH OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, The Old Course at St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland - The season's third major championship is on deck and it's being contested at the home of golf, The Old Course at St. Andrews.

All of the greats have won there, like Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. In fact, the younger of those two stars has hoisted the claret jug the last two times St. Andrews hosted the Open Championship in 2000 and 2005.

Woods' game is in tatters at the moment. (Tatters for him anyway.) Phil Mickelson, the Masters champion, can overtake Woods for the No. 1 spot in the world rankings, but Mickelson's British Open record is spotty at best.

Last year, the world missed out on probably the greatest golf story in history. Tom Watson, then 59, held the lead on the 18th hole Sunday in his quest for a sixth Open title. He bogeyed the hole, appeared to run out of gas and lost a playoff to Stewart Cink.

The year before that, it was 50-year-old Greg Norman who had the lead on Sunday. Unfortunately, the two-time British Open winner didn't have it down the stretch and Padraig Harrington blew by him.

Several Europeans not named Harrington come into this week with some momentum. Ten of the top-20 ranked players in the world come from Europe, including Harrington.

He's the one of two European major winners of the group. Will it be a Westwood or a Poulter or a Rose or a McIlroy to break through? Rose has two wins in a little over a month, so he makes sense.

U.S. Open champion Graeme McDowell had a decent showing at the Scottish Open over the weekend. He could try to win majors at St. Andrews and Pebble Beach in the same year, much like Tiger in 2000.

What about world No. 4 Steve Stricker? His impressive victory at the John Deere Classic on Sunday would put him in good shape to make a run at that first major victory.

Perhaps the most famous hole in golf, the Road Hole, 17th at St. Andrews has been lengthened by almost 40 yards. The hole will now play at 490 yards come Thursday.

ESPN and ABC have the coverage all week, including 4:00 a.m. (et) start times on Thursday and Friday. Coverage starts at 7 a.m. on Saturday and 6 a.m. Sunday.

Next week on the PGA Tour is the Canadian Open, which was won last year by Nathan Green. The European Tour features the Scandinavian Masters, which was captured by Ricardo Gonzalez.

PGA TOUR

RENO-TAHOE OPEN, Montreux Golf & Country Club, Reno, Nevada - The Biggest Little City in the world hosts the PGA Tour stop for those not qualified for the British Open.

The field is about as good as can be expected with a nice mix of young players trying to get that first win, or veterans trying to reclaim some youthful magic.

Last year, John Rollins mixed three bogeys, a double-bogey, an eagle and three birdies in an even-par round of 72 on Sunday to get his third PGA Tour victory.

Rollins won by three over Jeff Quinney and Martin Laird. Rollins didn't make it into the British Open field, so he'll be back on Thursday to defend his title.

The 2009 event was staged opposite the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and was played the first week of August. The now defunct U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee played opposite the Open Championship.

The Golf Channel has the broadcast all week.

Next week is the Canadian Open.

NATIONWIDE TOUR

CHIQUITA CLASSIC, TPC River's Bend, Cincinnati, Ohio - This is a new event on the Nationwide Tour this year, per an announcement in early March of this year.

The TPC River's Bend was designed by Arnold Palmer and opened in 2001.

The Golf Channel broadcasts all four rounds.

Next week the Nationwide Tour stays in Ohio for the Nationwide Children's Hospital Invitational at The OSU Golf Club. Derek Lamely won the title last year.

CANADIAN TOUR

THE PLAYERS CUP, Pine Ridge Golf Club, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada - One of two major Canadian Tour major championships, the Players Cup, takes center stage this week.

Well, after one of the four big major championships.

For the third consecutive year, Pine Ridge Golf Club is host. The winner of this championship gets a first-place check for $48,000 and a spot in next week's Canadian Open on the PGA Tour.

Graham DeLaet shot a 69 on Sunday and came from behind to win for the second time on the Canadian Tour in 2009. He won the ATB Financial Classic earlier in the year.

DeLaet won't be on hand to defend his title. He reached the PGA Tour through Q School and is scheduled to compete at the Reno-Tahoe Open.

There is no television for this tournament.

The Canadian Open is technically on the Canadian Tour schedule, but the next tournament is the Jane Rogers Championship on Aug. 9. Ryan Yip visited the winner's circle last year.

UNITED STATES GOLF ASSOCIATION

U.S. AMATEUR PUBLIC LINKS CHAMPIONSHIP, Bryan Park Golf & Conference Center, Greensboro, North Carolina - One of golf's oldest amateur tournaments starts on Monday.

There's two days of stroke play on Monday and Tuesday. That determines the low 64 players and then it's match play. The first round is Wednesday, followed by the second and third rounds on Thursday, the quarterfinals and semifinals on Friday and the 36-hole final on Saturday.

Brad Benjamin won last year's title, but is not back to defend.

Ryan Moore, former Masters champion Trevor Immelman and reigning Players Champion Tim Clark highlight a group of former winners.

Next week there are two USGA events, the U.S. Junior Amateur and the U.S. Girls' Junior.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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