Bailey to return as Reds seek sweep of Marlins

Baseball Betting Lines

08/15/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former phenom Homer Bailey makes his first big-league start in nearly three months when the Cincinnati Reds go for the sweep against the Florida Marlins in today's finale of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park.

The Reds made it two straight wins on Saturday night, when Mike Leake threw six solid innings and Francisco Cordero survived a rough ninth en route to a 5-4 triumph.

Leake (8-4) gave up six hits and three runs while fanning six batters to snap a three-start losing streak. The Reds went to Cordero in the ninth with a two- run lead, and the right-hander promptly loaded the bases with nobody out before Gaby Sanchez grounded into a 5-4-3 double play to score one run.

Dan Uggla then fouled out to first baseman Joey Votto, however, ending the game and giving Cordero his 31st save of the year.

Cincinnati moved back into a tie for first place in the National League's Central Division with the St. Louis Cardinals, who lost the middle game of their series with the Chicago Cubs yesterday.

Bailey, the Reds' first pick and eighth overall in 2004, hasn't pitched in the majors since going just 2 1/3 innings in a no-decision against Cleveland on May 23.

He went on the 15-day disabled list the following day with right shoulder inflammation and will take the scheduled turn of right-hander Johnny Cueto, who was suspended for seven games for his role in a fight with the Cardinals during Tuesday's game in Cincinnati.

Bailey went seven shutout innings in his last rehabilitation start for Triple- A Louisville, striking out nine and walking none.

He lost a 5-3 decision to the Marlins in his second start of the season, back on April 14 in Miami. That's his lone decision in two career starts against Florida, in which he's allowed 11 hits and five runs in 12 1/3 innings.

Florida replies with Venezuelan right-hander Anibal Sanchez, who'll be trying to reach 10 wins in a season for the second time in his five-year career.

The 26-year-old was a double-digit winner as a rookie in 2006, when he was 10-3 with a 2.83 earned run average in 18 appearances for the Marlins.

He'd won just eight times in three seasons before this year, when he recorded win No. 9 after allowing a pair of unearned runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-2 victory at Washington on Tuesday.

Sanchez has split a pair of lifetime meetings with the Reds while allowing 11 hits and five runs in 10 innings.

These teams split a four-game set in Miami from April 12-15, as well as four meetings held at Great American Ball Park last season. The Reds have gone 11-2 against the Marlins at home since 2007, however.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.